NSF NCAR researchers developed icing and turbulence forecasting tools for new system
by Audrey Merket
| Impact Statement: The Domestic Aviation Forecast System will generate more detailed forecasts of evolving icing and turbulence risks – providing forecasters, flight planners and pilots with more detailed, real-time intelligence about changing weather conditions along a flight path. |
Starting in late March, a new NOAA weather forecast system began to provide improved forecasts of two aviation hazards that pose threats to flight safety and create anxiety among passengers: airplane icing and turbulence.
Covering the contiguous United States, the new Domestic Aviation Forecast System (DAFS) generates more detailed forecasts of evolving icing and turbulence risks, giving pilots real-time intelligence about changing weather conditions along their flight path.
DAFS is an integrated suite of aviation forecasts developed through a collaboration between researchers at the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) and NOAA's Global Systems Laboratory. NSF NCAR led the scientific development of the icing and turbulence capabilities for DAFS. The system will be run operationally by the National Weather Service's Aviation Weather Center and was funded by the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program.
"This new, advanced aviation icing and turbulence forecast system is another milestone in our efforts to continuously improve the safety and efficiency of our national airspace system," said Wiebke Deierling, lead of NSF NCAR's aviation turbulence group. "We've done significant work to update to higher resolution forecasts, which has added capabilities to both icing and turbulence predictions."
New model builds on past success
DAFS incorporates an upgraded Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) algorithm developed at NSF NCAR. NSF NCAR researchers developed GTG in response to an FAA desire to generate real-time forecasts of aviation turbulence. The upgraded GTG improves prediction of several types of turbulence that can cause serious injuries to aircraft occupants and airframe damage, and require rerouting of flights. It comprehensively incorporates all types of turbulence hazards including low-level turbulence, clear air turbulence and mountain wave turbulence, and turbulence within clouds ranging in size from small storms to large systems.
Another one of DAFS' enhanced tools is an upgraded version of NSF NCAR's Forecast Icing Product (FIP), an algorithm that provides forecasts of in-flight icing probability, severity, and freezing drizzle and freezing rain conditions. In-flight icing occurs when liquid water droplets at or below freezing temperatures freeze on contact with the aircraft's cold surface. Ice buildup can affect the performance and efficiency of propellers and rotors, stability and steering controls, radio antennas, air intakes and more, sometimes with deadly consequences. The risk is especially high in clouds containing supercooled large droplets, which freeze upon contact with an aircraft and can create dangerous buildup that poses a significant danger.
"One of the notable things about DAFS is that the upgraded FIP algorithm is now integrated into NOAA's post-processing software," said Daniel Adriaansen, the NSF NCAR researcher leading the development of the icing algorithm. "This tighter coupling of research and development with operations not only produces a more seamless product, but opens the door to more rapid development in the future."
For more about DAFS, see the NOAA news release.
https://news.ucar.edu/133066/new-aviation-weather-system-improves-us-air-travel-efficiency-and-safety
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Audrey Merket
Science Writer and Public Information Officer
UCAR, UCP and NSF NCAR
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