Please join CPAESS for a virtual seminar talk with Ryan Harp, NOAA-CDC Climate and Health Postdoctoral Researcher, CPAESS
Title: Building Toward a Climate-Informed West Nile Virus Forecast
When: Wednesday, April 17 at 11:00 AM (MT) (Virtual)
Synopsis:West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental U.S. and has led to a reported 2,600 deaths since its introduction into the country in 1999. Despite the potential public health benefits, forecasts of WNV disease burden are not yet reliable enough to provide actionable insights. Toward the goal of an effective national-scale WNV prediction capability, I first present preliminary results of a multi-model comparison project that assesses the state of WNV forecasting and examines methodologies consistent across the best performing disease models. Second, I describe progress in building a climate-informed WNV disease model. This project blends statistically downscaled, gridded near-surface meteorological data (e.g., 2-m air temperature, precipitation) with WNV data from the CDC ArboNET national surveillance system at multiple spatiotemporal scales to identify climate anomalies that impact annual WNV caseload and timing. Upcoming work aims to merge identified empirical relationships with weather observations and forecasts to provide WNV disease forecasts at actionable lead times.
All participants will access the seminar via the webcast link and utilize Slido during the seminar for questions.
View the April flyer
This seminar will be recorded and published on the CPAESS YouTube Channel.