Research

PRESENTER: Ben Trabing, PH.D., CPAESS Associate Scientist III, National Hurricane Center (NHC) Title: Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful? The radius of maximum wind (RMW) is a key structural parameter of tropical cyclones that describes how far the strongest winds are from the storm's center. The RMW is closely tied to significant hazards such as wind, storm surge, and rainfall. However, little forecast guidance is provided for the RMW resulting in forecasters using climatological estimates to help communicate hazard risk. In order to better forecast the RMW, we need to understand the performance of the few guidance techniques available. We compare RMW forecasts from the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) to two statistical models and a climatological estimate. Forecasts of the RMW from HAFS are not competitive with statistical derivations of the RMW with marginally better to comparable skill for stronger tropical cyclones. The results indicate that there is a strong need for future improvements to better predict tropical cyclone structure in addition to track and intensity. View the Abstract https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.c... The Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS—pronounced: see-pass) is a UCAR Community Programs (UCP) division at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). UCAR manages the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Our administrative office is located in Boulder, Colorado, USA. CPAESS was created in February 2016, from the merger of two long-established and successful programs: the Joint Office of Science Support (JOSS) and the Visiting Scientist Programs (VSP). CPAESS is providing an extensive portfolio of organization and management services for the broad Earth science community. Our vision and mission complement and mirror the vision and mission of UCAR, including UCP and NCAR. We are collectively working towards the advancement of scientific research for the benefit of society.